Paweł Fiedor
Macroprudential Policy & Non-Bank Financial Intermediation (NBFI)
My career is driven by a fundamental question: how can we build a more resilient financial system?
I've pursued the answer from multiple angles—first from inside the markets, then through deep academic research, and now from within the core of European financial oversight. My mission is to translate complex data into clear, actionable policy that safeguards our economic future.
- ▪ Over 10 years of experience in macroprudential policy, including architecting the Central Bank of Ireland's stress-testing framework for investment funds.
- ▪ Deliver strategic briefings directly to ESRB Chairs (Christine Lagarde, Mario Draghi).
- ▪ Invited Faculty at the European University Institute (EUI) and technical advisor to IOSCO and ESMA.
I am a member of the IEEE, Royal Economic Society, and Polish Economic Society. My LinkedIn profile can be found here and my CV here. Reach me at [email protected].
Outside Economics
I am a Senior International Master at the ICCF and winner of the 3rd Polish Fischer Random Correspondence Championship.
View Strategic Impact & Advisory Roles ▼
- Framework Architecture: Architected a central bank's state-of-the-art macroprudential stress testing framework for investment funds from the ground up, and pioneered the global use of CCP public disclosures for systemic risk monitoring.
- EU Regulation: Act as a key expert liaison to the European Commission, providing analysis that helps steer the development of EU regulation under the Investment and Savings Union initiative.
- International Advisory: Serve as a technical advisor to international bodies, including IOSCO and ESMA, on the design and implementation of stress testing methodologies for investment funds.
View Academic & Career Background ▼
It began with a hands-on role at State Street, managing the intricate mechanics of a major US hedge fund. That experience gave me an invaluable, practical understanding of how markets truly operate.
To understand the risks hidden within that complexity, I earned a PhD at the Kraków University of Economics, diving into the world of advanced statistical modeling and network theory. This academic journey, recognized in "Advances in Financial Machine Learning," equipped me with the rigorous quantitative framework needed to identify and analyze systemic vulnerabilities.
Between my PhD and public service, I furthered this research as a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cape Town.
Transitioning into public service, I was a founding member of the non-bank financial stability division at the Central Bank of Ireland, building its analytical capabilities from the ground up.
References
References available upon request.
Research & Publications
ESRB Non-bank Financial Intermediation Risk Monitor 2025
As a key contributor, I played a significant role in the development of the ESRB's flagship annual report on systemic risks in the non-bank financial sector. This publication provides the core analysis underpinning European financial stability policy in this critical area.
Read the Full ReportShock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds
Journal of Financial Stability (2024) — Impact Factor: 4.2
This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks' capital ratios by around one percentage point. The main driver of additional bank losses are endogenous market losses generated by investment funds' asset liquidation.
Read the PaperPeer-Reviewed Publications ▼
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Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds
(with colleagues), 2024
Journal of Financial Stability — Impact Factor: 4.2
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Securitisation Special Purpose Entities, Bank Sponsors and Derivatives
(with N. Killeen), 2021
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money — Impact Factor: 6.1
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Centrally cleared interest rate derivatives market: How are clients changing the risk perspective?
(with S. Lapschies & L. Országhová), 2018
Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures
Policy Publications ▼
- An Lonn Dubh: Disentangling Market Liquidity Risk for Irish Investment Funds (Financial Stability Note 5/2021)
- Information and liquidity linkages in ETFs and underlying markets (with P. Katsoulis), Research Technical Paper 08/2020, Central Bank of Ireland
- An Lonn Dubh: A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing of Investment Funds (Financial Stability Note 2/2019)
- Clearinghouse-Five: determinants of voluntary clearing in European derivatives markets, ESRB Working Paper 72, 2018
- Macroprudential provisions, measures and instruments for insurance (ESRB Report, 2018)
- Indicators for the monitoring of central counterparties in the EU (with E. Alfranseder, S. Lapschies, L. Országhová & P. Sobolewski), ESRB Occasional Paper 14, 2018
- Regulatory risk-free yield curve properties and macroprudential consequences (with J. Brinkhoff, L. Dieckhoff, D. Hendrickx, P. Sengmüller & M. Strömgren), ESRB Report, 2017
Teaching & Speaking ▼
- European University Institute (EUI) — Invited Faculty delivering advanced training on financial stability, investment funds, and regulation (Florence, 2025).
- PMI Ireland Chapter National Conference — Invited panelist (Dublin, 2022).
- ESMA EU Derivatives Workshop — Invited panelist (Paris, 2018).
- ESRB Workshop on CPMI-IOSCO Data and CCP Risk Indicators — Invited panelist (Paris, 2017).
Interdisciplinary Publications ▼
2016
- Structural Sustainability of the Polish Trade System, Acta Physica Polonica A 129 (5), 1004-1007.
2015
- Granger-causal nonlinear financial networks, Journal of Network Theory in Finance 1 (2), 1-30.
- Multiscale Analysis of the Predictability of Stock Returns, Risks 3 (2), 219-233.
- Partial Mutual Information Analysis of Financial Networks, Acta Physica Polonica A 127 (3), 863-867.
- Mutual Information-Based Hierarchies on Warsaw Stock Exchange, Acta Physica Polonica A 127 (3A), 33-37.
- The Social Dynamics of the Peter Principle, Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Review 8 (1).
- Network Analysis of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Based on Partial Mutual Information, Journal of Risk and Financial Management 8 (2), 266-284 (with T. You & A. Hołda).
2014
- Networks in financial markets based on the mutual information rate, Physical Review E 89, 052801.
- Information-theoretic approach to lead-lag effect on financial markets, European Physical Journal B 87 (8), 168.
- Sector strength and efficiency on developed and emerging financial markets, Physica A 413, 180-188.
- Frequency Effects on Predictability of Stock Returns, Proceedings of the CIFER 2014 conference, pp. 247-254, London.
- A firm's perspective on econophysics-based currency risk analysis, Financial Sciences 4 (21), 92-107 (with A. Hołda).
2013
- Refutation of the Economic Constant Hypothesis, Cracow Review of Economics and Management 920, 22-32.
Links & Resources
Preprints & Citations
- Google Scholar h-index: 10 · Citations: 521
- Scopus h-index: 7 · Citations: 210
- RePEc/IDEAS
- arXiv
Scientific Software
Peer Reviews
- Reviewer for 15+ journals including Journal of Banking & Finance, PLoS One, and Chaos.
- Web of Science Profile
Languages
- Polish (Native)
- English (C2)
- German (B2)
- Mandarin (B2)
- French (B1)
- Hindi (A2)