Paweł Fiedor

Macroprudential Policy & Non-Bank Financial Intermediation (NBFI)

Financial Stability Expert, ESRB Secretariat (ECB) On secondment from the Central Bank of Ireland
Pawel Fiedor

My career is driven by a fundamental question: how can we build a more resilient financial system?

I've pursued the answer from multiple angles—first from inside the markets, then through deep academic research, and now from within the core of European financial oversight. My mission is to translate complex data into clear, actionable policy that safeguards our economic future.

  • Over 10 years of experience in macroprudential policy, including architecting the Central Bank of Ireland's stress-testing framework for investment funds.
  • Deliver strategic briefings directly to ESRB Chairs (Christine Lagarde, Mario Draghi).
  • Invited Faculty at the European University Institute (EUI) and technical advisor to IOSCO and ESMA.

I am a member of the IEEE, Royal Economic Society, and Polish Economic Society. My LinkedIn profile can be found here and my CV here. Reach me at [email protected].

Outside Economics

I am a Senior International Master at the ICCF and winner of the 3rd Polish Fischer Random Correspondence Championship.

View Strategic Impact & Advisory Roles
  • Framework Architecture: Architected a central bank's state-of-the-art macroprudential stress testing framework for investment funds from the ground up, and pioneered the global use of CCP public disclosures for systemic risk monitoring.
  • EU Regulation: Act as a key expert liaison to the European Commission, providing analysis that helps steer the development of EU regulation under the Investment and Savings Union initiative.
  • International Advisory: Serve as a technical advisor to international bodies, including IOSCO and ESMA, on the design and implementation of stress testing methodologies for investment funds.
View Academic & Career Background

It began with a hands-on role at State Street, managing the intricate mechanics of a major US hedge fund. That experience gave me an invaluable, practical understanding of how markets truly operate.

To understand the risks hidden within that complexity, I earned a PhD at the Kraków University of Economics, diving into the world of advanced statistical modeling and network theory. This academic journey, recognized in "Advances in Financial Machine Learning," equipped me with the rigorous quantitative framework needed to identify and analyze systemic vulnerabilities.

Between my PhD and public service, I furthered this research as a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cape Town.

Transitioning into public service, I was a founding member of the non-bank financial stability division at the Central Bank of Ireland, building its analytical capabilities from the ground up.

References

References available upon request.

Research & Publications

Featured Report

ESRB Non-bank Financial Intermediation Risk Monitor 2025

As a key contributor, I played a significant role in the development of the ESRB's flagship annual report on systemic risks in the non-bank financial sector. This publication provides the core analysis underpinning European financial stability policy in this critical area.

Read the Full Report
Featured Paper

Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds

Journal of Financial Stability (2024) — Impact Factor: 4.2

This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks' capital ratios by around one percentage point. The main driver of additional bank losses are endogenous market losses generated by investment funds' asset liquidation.

Read the Paper
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Policy Publications
Teaching & Speaking
  • European University Institute (EUI) — Invited Faculty delivering advanced training on financial stability, investment funds, and regulation (Florence, 2025).
  • PMI Ireland Chapter National Conference — Invited panelist (Dublin, 2022).
  • ESMA EU Derivatives Workshop — Invited panelist (Paris, 2018).
  • ESRB Workshop on CPMI-IOSCO Data and CCP Risk Indicators — Invited panelist (Paris, 2017).
Interdisciplinary Publications

2016

2015

2014

2013

Newsletter & Analysis

The Macro Prudential View

Translating complex institutional research on systemic risk, market structure, and financial stability into actionable insights for policymakers and market practitioners.

Recent Featured Articles

Read & Subscribe on Substack

Links & Resources

Preprints & Citations

Scientific Software

Peer Reviews

  • Reviewer for 15+ journals including Journal of Banking & Finance, PLoS One, and Chaos.
  • Web of Science Profile

Languages

  • Polish (Native)
  • English (C2)
  • German (B2)
  • Mandarin (B2)
  • French (B1)
  • Hindi (A2)